Do you guys feel like I do? I am so tired of hearing COVID, COVID, COVID on the news; where 99% of it is negative. Well, I decided at giving COVID-19 modeling a try myself. Although, I am not a doctor, I am a scientist and I have received a fair amount of advanced scientific training.
These epidemics, in general but not always, are modeled on a bell shaped curve. The alternative title is a normal distribution. The mathematical formula is fairly complicated. So, I took the raw data available to the public and fit this data to a parabola. It is not perfect, but I think for the data range that I used, it can be a bit insightful.
Here is a chart that I mentioned in a previous article.
Now, here is what I generated.
Not all diseases follow the same pattern, but if COVID-19 follows the same pattern as most other flu viruses; then this will all be over very soon. I wish the big news stations would start giving us some positive news. Let us see what happens on May 8. Let us see who was right, me or Dr Fauci.