COVID-19 Modeling – A New Perspective

Do you guys feel like I do?  I am so tired of hearing COVID, COVID, COVID on the news; where 99% of it is negative.  Well, I decided at giving COVID-19 modeling a try myself.  Although, I am not a doctor, I am a scientist and I  have received a fair amount of advanced scientific training.

These epidemics, in general but not always, are modeled on a bell shaped curve.  The alternative title is a normal distribution.  The mathematical formula is fairly complicated.  So, I took the raw data available to the public and fit this data to a parabola.  It is not perfect, but I think for the data range that I used, it can be a bit insightful.

Here is a chart that I mentioned in a previous article.


Now, here is what I generated.

COVID REgression.png

Not all diseases follow the same pattern, but if COVID-19 follows the same pattern as most other flu viruses; then this will all be over very soon.  I wish the big news stations would start giving us some positive news.  Let us see what happens on May 8.  Let us see who was right, me or Dr Fauci.

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