My understanding is that COVID-19 belongs to the influenza family of diseases. If that is true, then this whole thing is going to be over very soon. Below, is an interesting graphic that I found on the internet.
This shows how the common flu has behaved in the US for the past few years. All the curves basically follow the same pattern. That is, they all basically start in November, and they are essentially finished in late April.
What I remember from biology class, is that we get sick during winter for two reasons. Firstly, the cold makes us weaker. Secondly, no one wants to be out in the cold, so we are inside more, and disease spreads more easily when we huddle together. When the warm weather comes back, we are stronger; and UV light is more intense, which kills the virus. We are also outside in the fresh air more during warm seasons.
I am also for social distancing and saving lives – particularly my own. What is frustrating is that no one in government, not the President, Congress, nor governors, appear to have a coherent plan on how to really see this pandemic to a rational conclusion – they look like the Keystone Cops.
They also use the same approach for everything: The Sledgehammer. They put all the onus on us and go over the top with reactionary measures that do not appear to have any forethought, like no stadium games, no schools, no universities, no night clubs, no malls, etc. When this all started, did the government officials really think that we could last long without being productive and making money? Why were they so surprised when unemployment went through the roof? Maybe it is because they do not have to look for a job?
We cannot live in fear; but we also cannot live without a plan. I do not have a PhD in biology, so I do not have a plan. However, it is obvious that a shutdown with no plan is not the solution. There has to be a way to protect ourselves and yet survive a crises without losing all we have worked for. Using the sledgehammer is a good way to appear like you are “getting tough”, but as the world leader, the USA should show the world that we have the brains to resist using brute force and that we do have the intelligence to think this through, and possibly already have a strategy in place before all hell breaks lose. In the oil refinery, we have contingency plans to mitigate disaster. I cannot believe the USA has no contingency plan for mitigating disease.
In sunny Texas, I feel this will be completely over by Easter. I cannot say that for NYC. But as for me, I plan to be back at business as usual: conferences, mixers, stadium games, and shopping for groceries at 3am if I please.