Commentary: COVID-19 Update, 3/31/2020

It looks like the Dow Jones is starting to rebound.  Why?  I think because everyone knows this whole thing is going to be over very quickly.   Neil Ferguson, the Gospel according to Imperial College coronavirus model, admits he made a mistake.  Data now indicate that the number of deaths will be much smaller.  He predicted 2.2 million in the US – not even close.


The president has extended his Guideline time frame to the end of April.  I wonder what will happen if this is over way before that?  Will the government and the media continue to bully us with regulation and hype?  Stay in your homes!  Close the stores.!  No conferences nor stadium sports!  When it is over, will they still maintain, “Nothing Is Over!”?

Ferguson admits one of the key reasons his model is wrong is because the virus infected some people and they did not show symptoms.,  In other words, the virus has been around for a while, thus the number of infected people is actually much higher than we think; yet, the death rate does not show that.

The epidemic is practically over in China since late February.  I am all for being careful; but, it appears that all the hype has been excessive.  I have to wonder why?  What is really scary is the lack of faith people have in our government.  People cleaned out the stores of toilet paper and cleaning materials.  Folks feel that the responsibility to stay alive falls on themselves and they cannot trust anyone else to do it.  I cannot blame them after what we saw at the New Orleans Superdome after Katrina Hurricane.

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