COVID-19: Use China As The Test Case

I checked the stats on China and it looks like the cases of COVID-19 in that country have peaked.  There are some interesting things in this chart.  Before I get started, let me just say that I am suspicious of government data.  In business and the universities, we take our own data – we do not need Uncle Sam telling us anything.  It would be so easy for the government to lie to us.  However, in this case, there really is no alternative.


This curve does not quite act like I think it should, but let us see what we can get out of it.  Firstly, this disease hits its inflection point only after about 10 days, Jan 31.  If you remember from college, an inflection point is where you go from a rising rate to a slowing rate, or vice versa.  Secondly, the virus essentially plateaus after about 30 days – Feb 20.  Why the plateau is so large is what I cannot figure out.  I have researched statistical curves for diseases on the internet, most are a left skewed and do not have a huge plateau like this one.  My guess is that the data reflects aggregate total cases and when people die or are healed from the disease, those numbers are not subtracted.

In short, what I am saying is that the crises is over after 1.5 months.  The worst is over and it is time to heal.  Although we have a cold front coming in today, temperatures in the deep south are actually hitting 90 F.  It will be interesting to see what happens in New Orleans.  Some experts believe that sun, heat, and humidity are important in killing the coronavirus.   I was out and around last Wednesday, and “man” was it hot.  About 90 degrees and a Sun that felt like a hot ethylene cracker.

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