The news channels are going on and on about how oil prices are stable despite the Iranian conflict because the USA is energy independent, but I have serious doubts. As far as I can remember, a little gun play and mischief in the Middle East have never caused oil to surge. Some sources say that the USA is a net exporter of oil. I do not see that occurring; but granted, we are getting very close to that situation.
Now imagine that real warfare does start in the Middle East. The USA might be able to support itself with its own oil, but Europe (our ally) can not. It is not enough to think just about the USA as regards oil. The USA is strong only with regards to having strong allies and good international agreements. The USA would be a good ally by supplying our friends with oil – Russia would supply too. Nevertheless, a war with Iran would cause a crunch in the oil market and the price of oil would go up; but it has to be a major heated conflict.
A major conflict in the Middle East may take Iraqi oil off the market. Oil from Kuwait and Saudi Arabia would most likely be severely hampered. The USA might be able to cover itself in an oil crisis; but Europe cannot. To be a successful nation, the USA has to consider its allies too.